Democrats need a
'go-to guy' for governor
by Charles N. Wheeler III

As the Chicago Bulls seek a fifth NBA championship this spring, Michael Jordan again will be their go-to guy, the player expected to deliver when the game is on the line. While Jordan is the best ever, other playoff teams have their go-to guys as well, players like the Utah Jazz' Kari Malone or the Los Angeles Lakers' Shaquille O'Neal. Indeed, without such a dominant performer, a team isn't likely even to make the playoffs.

In politics, too, it's nice to have a goto guy, a top-of-the-ticket star who can carry the party's other candidates to victory in November. Just ask Illinois Democrats, who a few weeks ago met in Springfield for the political equivalent of the NBA's rookie camp looking for just such talent.

The party's dilemma is two-fold. Its first candidate on the ballot, U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun, is a shaky incumbent who will be one of the top Republican targets nationwide in 1998. In the other high-profile statewide race, no clear favorite has yet emerged for the party's nomination for governor, which in all likelihood will mean challenging Republican incumbent Jim Edgar, the GOP's closest equivalent to His Airness.

Democrats need no reminder about the impact a weak top-of-the-ticket can have on a party's candidates lower down on the ballot. Anemic showings by Republican standard bearers Bob Dole and Al Salvi last fall helped Democrats pick up two state Senate seats and six state House seats, enabling them to regain House control.

In sports, the go-to guy is expected to deliver when the game is on the line. Political parties also need a top-of-the-ticket star who can carry other candidates.

The roles could be reversed next year, with consequences that could be worse for Democrats than the loss of a few seats for a couple of years. At stake could be control of the legislature for the first decade of the new century. That's because whoever is elected governor in 1998 should still be in office in 2001, when it's time once again to redistrict the General Assembly. The winner thus will be able to sign or veto any new map that reaches his desk, just as Edgar rejected a proposed map sent him by the Democrat-controlled legislature in 1991. After the governor's veto, Republicans went on to win the right to draw a new map unilaterally, ultimately leading to GOP majorities in both

chambers in 1995 for the first time in two decades. Given the 1991 map's partisan leanings, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to hold legislative majorities going into the remap session. So a Democratic governor's pen could be the party's only hope for a hand in mapmaking.

And who might that Democratic governor be? So far, only one hopeful — U.S. Rep. Glenn Poshard — has declared formally, but a number of others are expected to jump in later. Former state Attorney General Roland W. Bums says he's certain to run, and one-time U.S. Associate Attorney General John Schmidt and former state Comptroller Michael J. Bakalis also presented their credentials to the party talent scouts. Also in the hunt is U.S. Attorney James B. Burns, whose federal post precludes active campaigning.

Handicapping a primary that's at least 10 months away is risky, but if one were to go out on a limb. Bums might not be a bad pick. Chairman of the Rainbow/PUSH Coalition and a Chicago lawyer, Bums should do well among fellow African-American voters in Chicago, where some 60 percent of the Democratic primary vote will be cast. In fact, Bums carried city precincts by some 53,000 votes in 1996, when he was runner-up for the party's gubernatorial nomination in a five-way race. The Centralia native also is a veteran statewide campaigner, winning three times for state comptroller and once for state attorney general.

No other Democratic hopeful can match Bums' strong Chicago base and his statewide experience. If Bums falters, though, a good dark horse might be Burns, whose prosecutorial wars on corrupt officials and gang leaders is reminiscent of the resume James R. Thompson compiled before running for governor. Like Burris, Burns has downstate roots, and the Murphysboro native gained statewide campaign experience as the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor in 1990.

The other Democratic hopefuls seem very long shots. Although a solid

42 ¦ May 1997 Illinois Issues

congressman, Poshard is little known outside his southern Illinois district and is out of step with the party's pro-choice, pro-gun control proclivities. Schmidt likely will have the support of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley. But he has no experience as a high-profile candidate and is as little known outside Chicago as Poshard is in the city. Bakalis, who unsuccessfully challenged Gov. Thompson in 1978, would prefer to be the party's nominee for U.S. Senate; indeed, he has been among the few party leaders willing to state publicly the concern shared by many that Moseley-Braun may not be electable.

While Moseley-Braun plans to run on her Senate record, Bakalis and others worry that whatever she's achieved has been eclipsed in the public's mind by personal missteps and nagging campaign finance questions. A primary challenge to the first black woman elected to the U.S. Senate is not likely, however. Instead, party leaders have rallied around the incumbent, reasoning that even if someone were to wrest the nomination from her, the task of winning back alienated African-American and women Democrats in November would be impossible.

Carol Moseley-Braurif the Democrats' first candidate on the ballot, is a shaky incumbent who will be one of the top Republican targets nationwide in 1998.

Perhaps the best hope for Democrats is that Republicans nominate a Salvi clone to run against Moseley-Braun, turning away moderate suburban women from the GOP candidate. The Republicans' first announced hopeful, state Sen. Peter G. Fitzgerald of Inverness, is a conservative who could be cast in that role by Democratic strategists. The worst matchup for Moseley-Braun would be someone like state Comptroller Loleta Didrickson, a moderate who could be expected to keep Republican women at home.

A GOP ticket headed by Didrickson and Edgar could make Democrats feel like an NBA team facing Jordan and Scotty Pippen without a go-to guy of its own.

Charles N. Wheeler III is director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at the University of Illinois at Springfield.

Illinois Issues May 1997 ¦ 43