Chicago
By CHARLES B. CLEVELAND
Chicago |
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WHAT will the Chicago area be like in the year 2000?
If anybody knows, it is one of a small group of urban social scientists who specialize in dissecting the federal census data and watching indicators on which way the population trends are going. Even this group doesn't agree. One member of this group is Pierre DeVise, a 52-year-old Belgium-born urbanist, who is currently lecturing at the University of Illinois Circle Campus.
When the new century opens, DeVise predicts that there will no longer be a Chicago city government; it will have been absorbed, for tax purposes, by either Cook County or maybe even a metropolitan area government.
"I think half the blacks and minorities will be living in the suburbs [now 12 per cent live there] and no community will be without blacks or minorities," he says. "There will be much larger school districts and none will be all white. But I think there will still be segregation."
He sees relatively little population growth; possibly 8 million residents by the year 2000 in the metropolitan area where there now are 7 million people. He predicts the City of Chicago will have 2 to 2½ million people. DeVise sees a slowing down, possibly in 10 years, of the Spanish influx and forecasts increased numbers of Orientals, including many professionals in the health field from the Philippines and India.
By 2000 he envisages a metropolitan Chicago area with no more than 10 per cent Spanish, 3 or 4 per cent Oriental, and about 25 per cent black.
If DeVise proves right, Chicago will be considerably smaller in population, but he sees this as a plus "unless we want to continue to have families living in overcrowded apartments and high rise buildings."
Among the points at which DeVise's crystal ball becomes clouded is whether Chicago will wind up a city of primarily blacks and minorities. It depends, he thinks, on how well the city adjusts to the inevitable loss of residents, industry, and commerce and the use to which the city puts the resultant vacant land.
Predicting into the faraway future is always hazardous because accuracy depends on birth and death rates and, to an increasing extent, migration. Historically, such long-range forecasts have always been wide of the mark. Shorter range forecasts can also vary for small areas. But DeVise's forecasts for areas the size of Chicago, Cook County or the metropolitan area have been virtually on the button.
For example, back in 1968 when Oak Park was virtually all white, he saw in advance the growth which today has a 3 per cent black population in that village. Some persons had predicted a 10 to 12 per cent racial change, and he said it could have occurred had Oak Park not anticipated and accommodated to it.
Racial change tends to follow the course of least resistance. Back in the 1920's the black ghetto was next to Bridgeport, which is best known these days as the home of Mayor Daley. In the last 50 years the ghetto has moved 20 miles south, but it has not moved an inch into Bridgeport.
On the west suburban area, Cicero has held the color line for 15 years, while Maywood, further north, went to more than 50 per cent black. Oak Park, located between Cicero and Maywood, had a modest minority growth. Why? Because DeVise says, it remained a desirable place to live for affluent non-blacks. True, some Protestants moved out, but they were replaced by younger Roman Catholics or Jews.
Another area undergoing population shifts is Evanston, again with younger residents replacing older ones, and an increase in Jewish residents. Both suburbs offer the old style architecture and landscaping that are attractive to Chicago residents.
Another suburb reflecting change is Park Forest. Once almost all white, it is now 6 per cent black; its neighbor. Park Forest South, is 19 per cent black. DeVise's reason for these changes is a combination of effects: a desirable liberal reputation in these two suburbs, racism in most other suburbs, and "steering" by real estate salesmen.
DeVise labels suburban racism as the big problem. It is forcing the relatively few blacks to live in a few suburbs or compelling minorities to remain in the city which in turn grows more and more black and Spanish. But, except for steering practices (sending customers to either all-white or changing neighborhoods), DeVise does not join those who blame the real estate business for racial change. "It takes 12 years for a racially changing neighborhood to go from predominantly white to predominantly black," he says. "But a school will change from predominantly white to predominantly black in two years, and real estate people have absolutely nothing to do about that."
Looking ahead, DeVise sees little evidence that the flight to the suburbs will end, and it saddens him. He is a confirmed Chicagoan living with his wife and son in West Lincoln Park, and he has no intention of moving. But his statistics say the traditional dependence of suburbia on Chicago is slipping; jobs are moving. More and more people work, not in their own suburb, but in another suburb. Suburbanites no longer go to the old neighborhood to shop; even downtown areas are drying up.
For once, Pierre DeVise probably hopes his figures are lying to him, but only the most optimistic booster would see that hope.
34 / June 1976 / Illinois Issues