Washington By TOM LITTLEWOOD

The 1980 census: New counting procedures needed, especially for inner city areas

THE CENSUS undercount is a federal problem that affects every district representative and every unit of government at whatever level. Legislative districts must be redrawn periodically to conform to changes in the population. Financial aid from federal and state treasuries usually is distributed according to formulas based on where the people are. Since 1790, the national census that is taken every 10 years has been accepted as the reliable source of such information.

Not everyone is counted in the census. By its own later estimate, the Bureau of the Census missed 5,301,000 people in 1970 — which is between two and three of every 100 Americans. The acknowledged undercount rate was four times greater among blacks than whites, especially in the metropolitan inner city where there are many reasons why someone might not wish to be formally identified.

By carefully checking birth, medicare and other records, and by using statistical sampling techniques, the bureau is able to arrive at a "true" national population that it considers more accurate. But the official census is an actual count, not a projected sampling. The statistical difficulty comes in trying to break down the undercount estimate and apply it at state, regional and local levels. After the 1970 experience, census officials resisted the pleading of black and other minority group leaders that adjustments be made in the big-city figures. Legal disputes would surely have ensued if census data were changed to benefit some and penalize others on the strength of an educated guess.

Congress recently assigned the General Accounting Office (GAO) to look into the procedures the bureau has in mind for the next decennial census — in 1980. The implications of that census already are clear for Illinois. Chicago continues to lose population. Some suburban and downstate communities have been gaining. At stake, as usual, is the balance of political power (and allocation of various government grants) between Chicago and its suburbs; between Cook County and downstate; and even between various neighborhoods and ethnic groups in the city. If the trends of the first half of this decade continue through the remainder of the 1970's, Illinois will give up two of its 24 U.S. House seats in the reapportionment based on the 1980 census. Florida stands to be the big gainer with five additional seats. Any redistricting that requires the sacrifice of incumbents is always a sticky political exercise.

More untabulated
A significant number of Chicagoans undoubtedly were untabulated in 1970 — including many who contribute to the police and welfare burden of the city — though no one can say for sure how many. GAO recommended in its report that methods be devised to include illegal aliens in the census. The Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) believes there may be more Mexicans living illegally in the Chicago metropolitan area than the official population of entire counties in Southern Illinois. But the Census Bureau, which does not attempt to include illegal aliens in either its "true" population or undercount figures, contends that "questionable procedures" were used by INS in making its estimates.

GAO could find no reason to believe the bureau's performance will be any better in 1980. Vincent P. Barabba, director of the census, said the difficulties of measuring "a population as large, diverse and mobile as the American people" should be recognized. He noted that these difficulties are " magnified by rapid social change including alienation from the government." Barabba said the bureau would try first to reduce "undercount differentials among areas and groups since these differentials are, in some ways, more grievous than the overall level of undercount."

That explanation did not satisfy GAO. The congressional agency urged that the bureau do more ("apply additional effort") to develop acceptable methods of at least being able to "distribute the residual undercount to state and major metropolitan areas." The bureau already is making preparations to use interviewing teams instead of lone individuals for followup checking in inner city neighborhoods; distribute Spanish language questionnaires; and perhaps check census records against other lists, such as vehicle drivers license records. Why not utilize mailcarriers in the counting process?, inquired GAO. That would add considerably to the cost of the census.

The first census during the George Washington administration cost about a penny per person counted. In 1970 the bill ran to about $200 million, a little less than a dollar per person. In 1980 the cost is expected to be between $400 million and $500 million.

Until this year the U.S. House of Representatives balked at the idea of a more frequent census. It's a big enough headache having to worry about redistricting every 10 years, or so reasoned the people's representatives. This year the House authorized a mid-decade census, but stipulated that the new figures could not be used to redraw congressional districts. Once that proviso was added, the opposition mysteriously disappeared. So, if the Senate (where the small states have a stronger voice) goes along, sampling methods will be used beginning in 1985 to update the census and with it the grant allocation formulas. ž

August 1976/ Illinois Issues/31