Washington By CHARLES J. ABBOTT

After the primary — glacial politics

THIS IS the season of glacial politics in Illinois, the period when candidates and their organizations subtly, almost undetectably change — the same way that glaciers seem to stand still but slowly, surely crush what is in their path. An example of the glacier school, according to some Iowa Statehouse reporters a couple of years ago, was Gov. Robert D. Ray whose administration policies changed so slowly — and almost always to form part of the winning side — it would surprise people when they realized there had been a change. Although it is a dormant period for campaigning, this is the time when anecdotes are passed around about how a candidate is doing, when opinion seems to form invisibly about the chances to win. Now is the time when some November elections are lost, candidates already being bulldozed out of contention.

It was this same type of dormant period, late in 1983, when one handicapper declared Rep. Tom Corcoran, despite weeks of travel, would not be able to topple Sen. Charles Percy in the Republican primary. Part of the evidence was the number of times he had sighted Corcoran at county fairs. As it turned out, he was right. Percy beat Corcoran 59 percent to 36. Percy now faces five-term Congressman Paul Simon who beat three other candidates for the Democratic Senate nomination.

For the winners of the Illinois congressional primaries, the game is reduced to who looks vulnerable and where to put the major effort and money. Only a few of the 22 House districts in the state appear to offer truly competitive races.

Every incumbent who wanted another term — 19 in all — won renomination. With the advantages of incumbency, that means few changes in the composition of the Illinois delegation and little change in the state's bargaining power. The heavyweights, House Republican Leader Robert Michel (R-18, Peoria), Ways and Means Chairman Dan Rostenkowski (D-8, Chicago) and Armed Services Chairman Mel Price (D-21, East St. Louis), hold secure districts. The obvious loss will be on the House Education and Labor Committee. John Erlenborn, who is retiring, was the top Republican on the committee, and Simon has been active on education issues.

As to those competitive districts, Sen. Alan Dixon figures there is "a pretty solid chance" for Democrats to pick up one House seat, possibly more. Michel says Republicans "can look beyond" the 1982 results that gave Democrats a 12-10 advantage in the delegation.

Only three seats were vacated — the districts held by Simon (22nd), Corcoran (14th) and Erlenborn (13th). Observers think Republicans will keep Corcoran's and Erlenborn's seats. Democrat Ken Gray of West Frankfort, known as the "Prince of Pork" from the public works projects he won in his previous 20 years in Congress, has to be favored to win in Simon's district since he used to represent a large chunk of it.

Officeholders and political workers think the big fights will be in the districts held by Reps. Dan Crane (19th), Lane Evans (17th) and Richard Durbin (20th). Crane, a Danville Republican, had a tough time in 1982 — before he was censured by the House for having an affair with a teenage page. State Sen. Terry Bruce of Olney won the four-way Democratic race and is promising a united party. Michel took the unusual step of siding with Crane in the primary. In a Capitol Hill interview, Michel said polls show Crane is the best candidate for the GOP. "It's not going to be the easiest race by any means," Michel said, but Crane has been given opportunities, such as assignment to the House Armed Services Committee, to build support.

Evans and Durbin are first-term Democrats who took control of Republican districts; Democrats figure both districts will be Republican targets.

Evans of Rock Island is running against the same man he beat in 1982, Kenneth McMillan, a former GOP state senator. Evans has compiled a relatively liberal voting record and says it is needed in a district with unemployment problems. He also is quick to list constituent services and frequent trips to the district, which he says helps maintain his organization. "I think economic issues will be the strongest issues and I think I'm in the better position there," Evans said. There would be little exaggeration in saying McMillan of Bushnell never stopped campaigning. He has spent months in assembling an organization and trying to broaden his appeal.

Durbin, chairman of the Freshman House Democrats, beat long-time Congressman Paul Findley in 1982 and, like Evans, has been making frequent trips home to build a good image. His Republican opponent is Richard Austin, chairman of the Sangamon County Board. Durbin is gearing for a big fight. Both are from Springfield.

Former state Sen. Harris Fawell, a moderate from Naperville, won the GOP nomination to succeed Erlenborn in a nine-way race. His biggest opposition was state Sen. George "Ray" Hudson of Downers Grove, who had the backing of major GOP county leaders. Fawell, however, had the advantage of friendship with Erlenborn, which mean organizational aid, and he had a solid reputation among moderates.

State Sen. John Grotberg of St. Charles had the toughest night of all in the primary, winning by just 790 votes in a four-way GOP primary to succeed Corcoran. With Corcoran losing to Percy, there was speculation the day after the election that Corcoran might try to get his seat back through a write-in.

Watch out for the glaciers.

May 1984/Illinois Issues/43