Drought of 1988: Just a blip on a radar screen?

"Illinois and Illinois farmers may think the drought is a big deal, but it's not a big deal for the rest of the world. Last year the Southeast Asian monsoon knocked 20 million tons of grain off the market in India and 10 million in Thailand, Indonesia and Viet Nam. The Soviet Union is famous for bad weather. There are freezes and droughts in Brazil. Over time, weather is a constant. We're losing less crop this year than we ordinarily divert under the set aside."
Source: Dennis Avery of World Perspectives, Washington, D.C. (World Perspectives studies agricultural trends and sells the information to buyers. The annual subscription price for its new newsletter is about $3,600.)

World weather

As of late July — if you left out the lower 48 states and the southern prairie provinces of Canada — most areas of the globe with some small exceptions were enjoying good weather. Farmers in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, the U.S.S.R. and India looked forward to high yields.
Source: National Weather Office, World Food Board, Washington, D.C.

Iuka, Illinois

Located just south of Highway 50 between Salem and Flora, Iuka with a population of 353 was the only place in Illinois registering a surplus of rainfall for the year by July 26. What put Iuka over the top was 7.23 inches of rain that fell between July 1 and July 26 — more than twice the normal 3.1 inches for that time period.
Source: Wayne Wendland, state climatologist, Illinois State Water Survey.

Grain for export and domestic needs

The U.S. has ample supplies.
Source: The Morning Agriculture Report, July 22.

The FAO is worried

The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates world cereal output in the 1988-89 agricultural year will be 1.785 billion tons, only 2 million tons more than last year's production of 1.783 billion tons —and below the trend for the second consecutive year. Most severely affected are the coarse grains — maize, barley and oats. World cereal stocks are projected to fall to 310 million tons, or 17 percent of global food production. This is the minimum FAO considers necessary to safeguard global food security.
Source: Press release, FAO, New York City, July 11. (Because it has run out of money, the FAO is not mailing newsletters to anyone except those already on its list.)

Food aid

U.S. Food Aid to developing countries is allocated in dollars; therefore rising prices could lead to a reduction in the volume of U.S. Food Aid. At the same time developing countries may need more food aid because their dollars will buy less imported food.
Source: FAO.

Bread and milk

"In general wheat is a big item on U.S. food aid, and wheat stocks are down considerably. Corn stocks are pretty good, but corn doesn't enter directly into food aid. Stocks of milk powder are low and prices up. This will put up the cost of milk powder, which is another key part of U.S. food aid and needed for immediate high protein relief."
Source: Ray Nightingale, USDA Economic Research Survey, Washington, D.C.

Food problems: Sudan, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Angola

Drought and civil war in Sudan and Ethiopia, civil war in Mozambique and Angola make famine a possibility.
Source: Same as above.

Morocco and Tunisia

Drought and an invasion by desert locusts make food scarcity likely.
Source: Same as above.

Mauritania, Ghana and Mali

These sub-Saharan nations, which have growing populations and primitive farming methods, have already encountered trouble with locusts and could be in more difficulty if a drought develops.
Source: Same as above.

Illinois

The state will run out of surplus rice, honey and cheese for distribution to the needy in July. It will continue to distribute butter, cornmeal, flour and milk as long as supplies last. Early this year the U.S. Department of Agriculture began cutting back the Temporary Emergency Food Assistance Program because of the dwindling farm surpluses. The future of the program beyond September 30 depends on legislation now in Congress.
Source: Press release, Illinois Department of Public Aid, July 6.

Central Illinois Food Bank

The Central Illinois Food Bank provides food to food pantries, nonprofit day-care centers and other places where people with low incomes or no incomes can get groceries or a meal. Five million pounds of food are distributed annually, of which 14 percent or 700,000 pounds is surplus commodities. Food pantry directors say they are serving more people now than they ever have. Many of these people haven't had jobs for a long time and are no longer counted in the unemployment statistics.
Source: Jack Habig, Central Illinois Food Bank.

Gains in general funds

On June 30, the end of fiscal year 1988, the general funds balance was $246,371 million. On July 30 it was $264,889 million. June's average daily available balance was $161,998 million; July's was $268,538 million.
Source: Office of the Comptroller.

Unemployment rates

The national seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.3 percent in June (the lowest since 1974) and rose in July to 5.4 percent. The Illinois rate was 6.6 percent in June and declined in July to 6.4 percent.

There were 5.709 million people in the state's labor force in June and 5.760 million in July; 5.332 million people were employed in June, 5.394 million in July; 377,000 unemployed in June and 366,000 in July.

Final unemployment rates for June and July in the state's metro areas were:

Aurora-Elgin, 5.6 percent, 5.0 percent.
Bloomington-Normal, 5.3 percent, 5.4 percent.
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul, 4.4 percent, 4.0 percent.
Chicago, 6.9 percent, 6.5 percent.
Davenport, Rock Island, Moline (Illinois sector), 8.3 percent, 7.5 percent.
Decatur, 10.3 percent, 9.0 percent.
Joliet, 8.2 percent, 7.6 percent.
Kankakee, 10.5 percent, 9.7 percent.
Lake County, 4.5 percent, 4.3 percent.
Peoria, 7.2 percent, 6.8 percent.
Rockford, 8.2 percent, 7.3 percent.
Springfield, 5.4 percent, 4.9 percent.
St. Louis (Illinois sector), 8.9 percent, 8.6 percent.
Source: Department of Employment Security.

Margaret S. Knoepfle

August & September 1988 | Illinois Issues | 8