Handicapping the 1988 legislative elections

In his initial campaign foray into Illinois following his Atlanta convention triumph, Democratic presidential nominee Michael S. Dukakis packed Springfield's Old State Capitol plaza late on a Friday afternoon. Ignoring 90-degree temperatures and eschewing happy hour at the local bistros, the throng responded enthusiastically as the Massachusetts governor paraphrased his acceptance speech of a few nights before.

The scene contrasted sharply with a similar rally on the same spot four years earlier, when the party's standard bearer, Walter Mondale, drew a smaller, much more lethargic audience.

And while a crowd of Democratic officeholders and candidates swarmed around Dukakis, few of Mondale's party mates in 1984 seemed eager to embrace the former vice president's campaign. Indeed, by the time election day rolled around, many Democratic hopefuls were all but denying their party affiliation.

The difference this year, of course, is that Democrats "smell the meat a'cookin'," as the late Paul Powell would have said. Party leaders and rank-and-file members feel they have a winner in Dukakis, one whose coattails could help solidify their grip on the Illinois General Assembly.

The party has "a good, credible Democratic candidate who's not too far left or right," said Gary J. LaPaille, chief of staff for House Speaker Michael J. Madigan (D-30, Chicago). Voters see Dukakis as "strong, self-assured" and someone who "seems to be in command," he added. Even Vice President George Bush described himself as the underdog in accepting the Republican nomination, and the flap over the circumstances under which his vice-presidential choice, U.S. Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana, got into the National Guard at the height of the Vietnam War was hardly an auspicious beginning for the GOP ticket.

One key tenet underlying the Democratic optimism is the belief that as the son of Greek immigrants, Dukakis will be able to regain the affections of many of the white ethnic voters so successfully courted by President Ronald Reagan in twice sweeping to victory in Illinois.

"Our sense is that Dukakis will bring the ethnics back," said William Holland, chief of staff for Senate President Philip J. Rock (D-8, Oak Park).

Whether that premise proves to be correct could be of critical importance in determining which party will control the Illinois Senate — where Democrats now hold a 31-28 edge — when the new General Assembly convenes in January. While 39 of the 59 seats are up for election, only five districts are considered truly competitive, and two of them take in heavily ethnic neighborhoods in Chicago.

The city targets — the northwest side 7th and the southwest side 24th — now are represented by first-term Republicans, Sen. Walter W. Dudycz and Sen. Robert M. Raica. Dudycz, a former Chicago police detective elected in 1984, is being challenged by Richard Valentino, a former aide to state Treasurer Jerry Cosentino and long-time 38th Ward Democratic activist, while Raica, on leave as a Chicago Fire Department paramedic, faces Chicago Ald. William F. Krystyniak (23rd).

Keeping Dudycz and Raica, only the second and third GOP senators from Chicago in two decades, seems essential if Republicans hope to achieve a Senate majority. If either loses, the GOP most likely would have to sweep the other three target districts, now held by Democrats; if both lose, Republican control seems out of

August & September 1988 | Illinois Issues | 10

the question for 1989 and perhaps even longer, given the fact that the terms of senators elected this year will extend through the 1991 redistricting.

While control of the House is not seriously in question this election, given the Democrats' 67-51 bulge, the ethnic question could be a factor in at least one top priority contest for both parties. That race is in the 35th District on Chicago's southeast side, where Rep. Samuel Panayotovich, who followed his political mentor, former Chicago Ald. Edward R. Vrdolyak (10th), into the GOP fold, is opposed by 10th Ward Supt. Clement Balanoff.

The stakes there are higher than just one House seat, of course, given GOP efforts to win other Democratic converts. "Sam's race is important because of all the talk about defections," said Mike Lang, press secretary for House Minority Leader Lee A. Daniels (R-46, Elmhurst). "If we keep him, it will encourage that sort of thing." Despite the Democratic optimism, Republican strategists aren't ready to concede the ethnic vote. In fact, argues Carter Hendren, chief of staff for Senate Minority Leader James "Pate" Philip (R-23, Wood Dale), it's downright demeaning to expect that Polish or Italian or Croatian voters will mark for Dukakis simply because of his Greek ancestry.

"Reagan wasn't ethnic," Hendren said. "He appealed on a philosophy and a vision of America that the Democrats can't embrace." On "good, gut, emotional types of issues" such as school prayer, reciting the Pledge of Allegiance, and prison furloughs, Bush is in tune with the concerns of ethnic voters, Hendren believes, while Dukakis is out of step.

"Those kinds of issues cut more than economics," he said. "Bush has to crystallize that message."

At the same time, Bush's outright pledge of no tax hikes and his efforts to paint Dukakis as a big-spending governor may not impress Illinois voters who recall that it was Bush's No. 1 cheerleader, Republican Gov. James R. Thompson, who pushed for a 40 percent increase in state income tax rates earlier this year, only to be thwarted by Democrat Madigan's adamant no-tax-hike stance.

The coattail effect is only one of the factors that pundits must consider in handicapping legislative races, of course. Voter turnout will be up this fall from 1986 because it's a presidential year, and in recent elections that has favored Republicans. On the other hand, Democrats expect to benefit from a substantial increase in straight party votes denied them two years ago after their intended gubernatorial candidate, Adlai E. Stevenson III, opted to run as a third-party choice rather than remain paired with the disciple of political extremist Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr. who won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor.

Perhaps the most significant factor at work this fall, as it has been for the last three elections, is the legislative map. The current district boundaries were designed to return Democratic majorities to the legislature. So far, they've worked; since the map's maiden outing, Democrats have lost a net of only two Senate seats and three House seats.

In fact, in only 57 of 354 House races under the map has the winner garnered less than 60 percent of the vote, a victory of landslide proportions; only 29 of 120 Senate contests were decided by less than 60 percent during the same period, and 17 of those occurred in 1982, the first election under the new lines.

The map is the main reason why strategists for both parties are keying in on just five of the 39 Senate seats (although dark horses could be hiding in several other districts) and why the hot-and-heavy action in the House will be concentrated in just a dozen or so of the 118 districts.

As is customary, legislative leaders are concentrating their state-of-the art campaign operations in the target districts, offering their hopefuls the latest technology and generous financial assistance. In all, the main campaign committees controlled by the four legislative leaders expect to lay out between $3 million and $3.5 million this fall, led by the House Democrats' $1 million-plus war chest.

Here's where the big money is going:

In the Senate, while the Democrats take aim at Dudycz and Raica, Republicans are keying on three incumbent Democrats: Sen. Joyce Holmberg of Rockford, opposed by Winnebago County Board Chairman John A. Terranova of Rockford in the 34th District; Sen. Thomas A. Dunn of Joliet, facing Crest Hill Mayor Donald Randich in the 42nd District; and Sen. Penny L. Severns of Decatur, challenged by Macon County Treasurer Jim O. Edgcomb of Decatur in the 51st District.

In the House, Republicans hope to increase their numbers to the point where a GOP majority might be within reach in 1990. Among the GOP target districts are the two that saw the closest contests two years ago, the 47th and the 85th.

Republicans are hoping the all-out effort for Raica, whose Senate district includes the mostly suburban 47th House District, will provide a winning boost for Anne Zickus, a Palos Hills realtor who missed unseating Rep. John T. O'Connell (D-Western Springs) by 235 votes in 1986.

The margin was even closer in the 85th, and in fact election officials declared the GOP candidate, Gerald C. Weller of Morris, a four-vote winner. But the results were challenged by the apparent loser, Rep. Ray A. Christensen (D-Morris), who ultimately was declared a three-vote winner on a party-line roll call by the majority Democrats. Weller has been campaigning ever since, while Democrats tapped Grundy County Clerk Lana J. Phillips of Morris for the race.

House Republicans also are focusing on Rep. Calvin R. Sutker (D-Skokie), opposed by advertising executive Sheldon Marcus of Morton Grove in the 56th, and Rep. John "Phil" Novak (D-Bradley), facing Iroquois County Clerk John M. Kuntz of Onarga, in the 86th District.

Democrats, meanwhile, believe the 45 percent black and Hispanic vote in the 35th District will doom born-again Republican Panayotovich. They also like the chances of three others: Jay C. Hoffman of Collinsville, a St. Clair County assistant state's attorney, against Rep. Ron Stephens (R-Troy) in the 110th District; Ed Teefey, a Mount Sterling banker, against Rep. Jeff Mays (R-Quincy) in the 96th District; and Geoffrey S. Obrzut of Northlake, a Madigan aide, against Rep. Linda Williamson (R-Northlake) in the 52nd district.□

CORRECTION: In the July "Politics" column, it was incorrectly reported that state Comptroller Roland W. Burris finished third in the 1984 Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate. In fact, Burris finished second. Our apologies to the comptroller.

Charles N. Wheeler III is a correspondent in the Springfield Bureau of the Chicago Sun-Times.

August & September 1988 | Illinois Issues | 11