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By PAUL M. GREEN


Democrat and Republican futures in post-Thompson era: 1990 elections



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Republican
Jim Edgar
for governor
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Republican Lynn Martin for U.S. senator
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Democrat Neil Hartigan for governor
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Democrat Paul Simon for U.S. senator


In some ways it will be like France without Charles de Gaulle or the New York Yankees without Lou Gehrig, but in 1991 Illinois politics will be without Gov. James R. Thompson. Big Jim in Illinois has towered over his opposition and has set the Illinois gubernatorial longevity record. It is safe to say that no future Illinois politician will ever equal Thompson's four straight gubernatorial victories or for that matter ever have the opportunity.

Politics, like everything else, goes on. In the 1990 statewide elections, except for U.S. Sen. Paul Simon (D, Makanda), no incumbent is running for reelection to his statewide office (each is a candidate for another office). Off-year elections, those in nonpresidential election years, usually help the party not holding the White House. With 1990 promising to be the most wide open election in Illinois since 1968, however, the off-year factor will aid Democrats only marginally.

As the post-Thompson era begins, the biggest question is whether the Democrats have the candidate to recapture the governorship or the Republicans have one that can continue their gubernatorial victory string. There are other questions that will affect the 1990 elections and the future of the two parties.

  • For Democrats, will the reelection bid of the sole incumbent, U.S. Sen. Simon, help their ticket?
  • For Republicans, will Thompson's last year in office help or hinder their candidates?
  • Another double-barreled one for Democrats: Will Chicago Democrats care about the 1990 statewide races with the next mayoral shootout set for spring 1991, and will the Democrats unite statewide or split over Cook County Democratic politics and its racial overtones?

For the Republican party in 1990, the big question is whether Secy. of State Jim Edgar (the overwhelming favorite for the GOP gubernatorial nomination) can emulate the winning Thompson game plan. Three of Thompson's four gubernatorial victories were landslides, and his formula was fairly consistent in all four (see tables 1-4). Only his first race against former U.S. Sen. Adlai E. Stevenson III in 1982 was close (it was one of the tightest statewide races in Illinois history) due to a series of circumstances which had little to do with the Democratic challenger's campaign or message.

Thompson usually received a respectable 40 percent of the vote in Chicago by doing well in ethnic and lake-front neighborhoods. Voter support for Thompson in the Cook County suburbs and the five collar counties around Cook (labeled the Suburban 5 1/2) would usually cancel out the greater Chicago voter support garnered by his Democratic opponent: In 1982 Thompson's Suburban 5 1/2 votes lopped off nearly three-quarters of Stevenson's incredible Chicago vote margins. In the rest of the state, Big Jim would devastate his Democratic opponent, thereby assuring himself a comfortable victory.

The photogenic and personable Edgar, who is unquestionably popular within Republican party ranks, has two obvious geopolitical problems — one in Chicago and another in the suburbs. Will Chicago's lakefront and ethnic voters identify with Edgar, who is from downstate Charleston? Chicago ethnic voters especially will be a major target for him. Edgar will try and bridge the sociocultural differences in background, religion and lifestyle between him and these voters, but his ability to win 40 percent of the Chicago vote as Thompson did seems somewhat "iffy" at least at this time.


August & September 1989 | Illinois Issues | 28


Edgar also has to convince homeowners in the Suburban 5 ½ (especially in the Republican-rich collar counties of DuPage, Lake, McHenry and Will) that he is the best alternative to the "big spending-big taxing" Democrats. Though Thompson was often criticized by these voters before and after every campaign, they voted overwhelmingly each time for Big Jim. To offset his Democrat opponent's likely big margins in Chicago, Edgar needs to win the Suburban 5 ½ by at least a 2-1 margin.

Try as he might Edgar and his eventual running mate may not match Thompson's Chicago and suburban percentages. To make the best showing possible, Edgar's choice of a running mate must be a metropolitan Chicagoan. As of mid-August his final four possible choices appear to be state Sen. Aldo DeAngelis (Olympia Fields), state Rep. Loleta Didrickson (Flossmoor), state Sen. Bob Kustra (Park Ridge) and state Sen. Judy Baar Topinka (North Riverside). Any of them would help him win suburban votes plus give him some advantage in his two target areas in Chicago.

To compensate for Edgar's likely vote production falloff compared to Thompson — in both Chicago and the Suburban ½, he must better Thompson's downstate record. He can do it. Given his background and downstate identification, Edgar has a legitimate shot of running like a vote-producing whirlwind south of Interstate 80 and west of Illinois Route 47.

For the Democratic party, it seems that if Illinois had a parliamentary form of government, the state's chief executive would be a Democrat. Through the combination of having sound legislative leadership and a favorable 1981 remap of legislative districts, Democrats have controlled the General Assembly in the 1980s. Yet the Executive Mansion has been in Democratic hands for only four of the last 20 years.

A major part of the Democratic gubernatorial problem centers on the party's fixation with Chicago and Cook County politics. The big city is the bedrock of the party's statewide strength, but in recent years the incredible struggle for power in City Hall has dominated any other political struggle in the state. Historically Chicago and Cook County Democrats have viewed statewide races as secondary to city and county contests; more than one has traded off statewide support for the advantage in a local election.

Will 1990 be the same old story for Democrats trying to win the governorship? At first glance the answer is no. Atty. Gen. Neil F. Hartigan (the leading contender in mid-August for the nomination) is a statewide player. His one term as lieutenant governor and two terms as attorney general have liberated him from a Chicago outlook on Illinois politics. While his personal political roots go back to Chicago and Mayor Richard J. Daley, he has made strong governmental and political efforts down-state. He also has the endorsement of Illinois House Speaker Michael J. Madigan of Chicago.

Table 1
Thompson v. Howlett, 1976
  James R. Thompson (R) Michael J. Howlett (D)
Chicago
votes511,401670,257
margin 158,856
percent43%57%
wards won2030
    Suburban Cook Co.
    votes729,350240,152
    margin489,198 
    percent75%25%
    townships won300
    Collar counties
    votes524,249135,045
    margin389,204 
    percent80%20%
    counties won50
Total 5 ½ counties
votes1,253,599375,197
margin878,402 
percent77%23%
Downstate 96 counties
votes1,235,395564,804
margin670,591 
percent69%31%
counties won942
Illinois TOTAL
votes3,000,3951,610,258
margin1,390,137 
percent65%35%
counties won993
Table 2
Thompson v. Bakalis, 1978
  James R. Thompson (R) Michael J. Bakalis (D)
Chicago
votes330,827497,270
margin 166,443
percent40%60%
wards won1337
    Suburban Cook Co.
    votes479,616177,046
    margin302,570 
    percent73%27%
    townships won300
    Collar counties
    votes324,434106,599
    margin217,835 
    percent75%25%
    counties won50
Total 5 ½ counties
votes804,050283,645
margin520,405 
percent74%26%
Downstate 96 counties
votes724,807482,219
margin242,588 
percent60%40%
counties won8610
Illinois TOTAL
votes859,6841,263,134
margin596,550 
percent60%40%
counties won9210
Table 3
Thompson v. Stevenson, 1982
  James R. Thompson (R) Adlai E. Stevenson (D)
Chicago
votes259,963728,580
margin 468,617
percent26%74%
wards won248
    Suburban Cook Co.
    votes436,095279,000
    margin157,095 
    percent61%39%
    townships won282
    Collar counties
    votes341,971162,292
    margin179,679 
    percent68%32%
    counties won50
Total 5 ½ counties
votes778,066441,292
margin336,774 
percent64%36%
Downstate 96 counties
votes778,072641,155
margin136,917 
percent55%45%
counties won7818
Illinois TOTAL
votes1,816,1011,811,027
margin5,074 
percent50.07%49.93%
counties won 83 19

August & September 1989 | Illinois Issues | 29


Table 4
Thompson v. Stevenson, 1986
 James R. Thompson (Republican) Adlai E. Stevenson (Solidarity)*no candidate (Democrat)*Total
Chicago
votes250,265442,07879,556771,899
margin 191,813 191,813
percent32%57%10%100%
wards won1337050
    Suburban Cook Co.
    votes378,265204,99623,695606,956
    margin173,269  173,269
    percent62%34%4%100%
    townships won282030
    Collar counties
    votes324,019129,53816,402469,959
    margin194,481  194,481
    percent69%28% 3% 100%
    counties won5005
Total 5 ½ counties
votes702,284334,53440,0971,076,915
margin367,750  367,750
percent65%31%4%100%
Downstate 96 counties
votes703,396480,11389,1881,272,697
margin223,283  223,283
percent 55%38%7%100%
counties won888096
Illinois TOTAL
votes1,655,9451,256,725208,8413,121,511
margin399,220  399,220
percent (3-party)53%40%7%100%
counties won9390102
*Stevenson won the Democratic primary nomination for governor, and Mark J. Fairchild, a follower of Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr., won the Democratic primary nomination for lieutenant governor. Since the governor and lieutenant governor candidates must run as a team in the Illinois general election, Stevenson withdrew from the Democratic ticket and ran for governor under a new party label, the Solidarity Party, with Michael J. Howlett Jr. as his running mate. Fairchild remained the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor on the general election ballot but no Democratic candidate was listed for governor.
NOTE: All breakdowns three party.

Armed with that new alliance with the powerful and tenacious Madigan plus a sizable financial war chest, Hartigan has chilled the hopes of potential Democratic rivals for the gubernatorial nomination — state Treasurer Jerome Cosentino and state Comptroller Roland Burris. In most other states the game would be over, and the troops would begin uniting behind the predictable nominee, but this is Illinois.

Which takes us to the second glance. For reasons that remain somewhat unclear, Hartigan has some personal political enemies who want to do whatever it takes to deny him the nomination. One powerful Democratic consultant suggests, "Hartigan's strength has never been strength," referring to Hartigan's position changes on some issues. Another political observer condemns Hartigan for dropping out of the 1986 gubernatorial primary contest to allow Stevenson to try a second time against Thompson. Hartigan ran instead for reelection as attorney general, a move keeping him alive politically to vie in 1990.

Some Democrats suggested Richard Phelan as the alternative to Hartigan for governor. A Chicago lawyer, Phelan recently headed the U. S. House Ethics Committee investigation of former U.S. House Speaker Jim Wright of Texas. Phelan, otherwise an unknown with no public administration experience or record on the major or minor problems facing Illinois voters, was like a political Chauncey Gardner, the blank page character played by Peter Sellers in the movie Being There. (Of course little was known of Dan Walker before his gubernatornatorial campaign in 1972.) He pulled out by mid-August.

It seems likely that Hartigan will easily win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. His most likely selection for a lieutenant governor running mate is a woman legislator from either downstate or the suburbs.

Until Gov. Thompson announced July 13 that he would not run again, the focus had been on which Republican would challenge U.S. Sen. Simon. The GOP nominee will be U.S. Rep. Lynn Martin (16, Loves Park), but she is in trouble. Three main obstacles make her a decided underdog in her challenge to Simon.

Historically, Illinois members of Congress running the first time statewide have had problems breaking away from their regional or district orientation. Philosophically, Martin will hit Simon from the right but that will not be enough. She must also win a huge chunk of the center. She needs to build an issue-oriented substantive case against the incumbent which presents her as an acceptable stable alternative to Simon's positions and policies. Financially, given the GOP's legitimate shots at retaining the governorship and winning attorney general, Martin may experience some severe problems raising campaign funds unless polls show her competitive. If she trails by double digit percentages in early summer 1990, she may be out of the ball-game for lack of attracting campaign financing.

Sen. Simon may, in fact, boost the Democrats' chance for success in 1990 with his "bowtie power" at the top of the ticket (no Democrat has even whispered an interest in challenging him). In recent months, Simon has parlayed his unchallengeable southern Illinois popularity (Martin's infamous redneck comment this summer was the icing on an already tall cake). To overcome the political fallout from his ill-fated 1988 presidential run, Simon has worked vigorously in the Chicago area. He has made up with Chicago's black political leadership — including Jesse Jackson, who vied with him for the presidential nomination in the Illinois Democratic primary. Simon has been seen on television helping Jewish immigrants leave Russia and aiding Chinese students in America who are demanding freedom in their homeland, and he has touched base with skeptical voters in a series of town meetings. If Simon's 1990 campaigning is as good as it has been so far in 1989, he may be the best thing Illinois Democrats have going for them.

Candidacies for other statewide offices were still somewhat unsettled in early August. For Republicans, there are the Ryan boys — DuPage County State's Atty. Jim Ryan and Lt. Gov. George H. Ryan of Kankakee. Jim Ryan should be on the ticket for attorney general and George Ryan for secretary of state.

Democratic nominations for attorney general are the most


August & September 1989 | Illinois Issues | 24


Predicting the 1990 statewide winners

U. S. Senator: Simon (D) v. Martin (R). A possible Simon landslide. Hard for Martin to chip off much of Simon's base vote, but Simon has an excellent chance of making vast inroads in traditional GOP suburbia.

Governor: Edgar (R) v. Hartigan (D). A toss-up. First time for each to lead the band. Two keys will determine winner: who holds up better under media scrutiny and who has the greater party unity.

Attorney General: Burris (D) v. J. Ryan (R). Almost a toss-up. Burris is a narrow favorite, but Ryan has potential for capturing the hearts and dollars of Illinois conservatives.

Secretary of State: G. Ryan (R) v. Cosentino (D). Cosentino narrowly over G. Ryan, whose strength is underestimated for this office. Chicago Democrat vote gives Cosentino the edge.

Treasurer and Comptroller: ? Unable to predict the eventual candidates, let alone the winners, but if the Republicans nominate their usual unknowns and then forget about them, the Democrats should retain both offices.               Paul M. Green


competitive and interesting. Three-term state Comptroller Burris, a proven statewide votegetter, wants to move up. Burris, with a base in downstate Centralia, has a longtime loyalty to the party and has served unblemished terms as comptroller. He held hopes for a run at the gubernatorial nomination but has set his sights on attorney general. His primary campaign should benefit greatly from Chicago and Cook County Democratic party leaders, who believe that a black must be on the 1990 statewide ticket. Race and racial politics have been the great Democratic party dilemma in Illinois (as well in other states). Racially unified, Illinois Democrats are hard to beat in statewide races (unless it's for president or Thompson is running). Racial unity will be a top Democratic priority for the statewide primary, partly because critical Cook County offices will also be contested in 1990.

But Burris has opposition. State Sen. Dawn Clark Netsch of Chicago announced her candidacy a few days before Burris this summer. At times at odds with the "regular" Democrats in


More is at stake in the
1990 elections than any
single politician's career


Chicago, she has served her lakefront district since 1973 and has long held ambitions for higher office. She is qualified by her legal background but has never been tested statewide.

Chief opposition to Burris, however, should come from Michael J. Howlett Jr. (the unsuccessful 1986 lieutenant governor candidate chosen by Stevenson to run with him on the Solidarity party ticket after the Lyndon LaRouche follower won the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor). Howlett, who resigned a judgeship to become Stevenson's running mate, has many influential friends inside the party, a famous last name in Illinois politics (his father was secretary of state and the first Democratic casualty to Thompson in 1976), and he has the hottest political consultant in the state, David Axelrod. Howlett is also a member of the same Chicago law firm as Phelan.

This Democratic contest for attorney general could be close, but Burris should win. Only a general black boycott in Chicago can deny him the nomination.

As for secretary of state, state Treasurer Jerry Cosentino should win the Democratic nomination in a breeze.

The other two statewide offices on the 1990 ballot are treasurer and comptroller. Democrats keep winning these offices, all the way back to Stevenson in 1966 for treasurer and to Michael J. Bakalis in 1976 for comptroller. The Republicans have a history of rounding up candidates and then leaving them out in the cold during the campaigns.

More is at stake in the 1990 state elections than any single politician's career. The crucial reapportionment of congressional and legislative districts is coming in 1991. The new districts will be drawn by the General Assembly. If one party controls both chambers (as the Democrats now do), and also the governorship, the other party may have no say in those maps. Republicans have been unable to recapture control of either chamber since the last redistricting. They balked at any compromise then and trusted their future to the luck of the draw, but the Democrats had the luck. (It was Edgar as secretary of state who drew that fateful Democratic name from a Lincoln hat to give Democrats the upper hand in drawing the 1981 maps.) If the Democrats stay in control of the House and Senate and win the governorship, too, they will have won the "redistricting triple."

While Republicans have a strong candidate in Edgar, they also have 14 years of the Thompson administration. Although Thompson is not the candidate, any flaws in his record will be grist for Democrats to try to hang on Edgar. Early on, Edgar seems to be making all the right moves, trying to establish that he is Jim Edgar, who wants to be governor, and not Jim Thompson, who has been.

Democrats are looking good, too, but racial issues and local politics in Chicago and Cook County can cloud the statewide political weather very quickly. Any role in statewide campaigns for Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley is uncertain since he will face reelection in 1991. And longtime Cook County Board president and Democratic county chairman, George Dunne, may be in trouble, and the next election for county board president is in 1990.

The statewide March 20 primaries are six months away (party candidates do not file until December), and the statewide general election is not until November 6, 1990. The horse races are on; the issues can't be far behind. □

Paul M. Green is director of the Institute for Public Policy and Administration, Governors State University.


August & September 1989 | Illinois Issues | 31



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