NEW IPO Logo - by Charles Larry Home Search Browse About IPO Staff Links

Politics

Power shift to GOP, suburbs, blacks and Hispanics

By CHARLES N. WHEELER III

Charles N. Wheeler III

The tremor running through the Illinois Statehouse last month was not the long dreaded stirring of the New Madrid Fault, though it may have seemed like it to Democrats. Instead, it was the state Supreme Court upholding a Republican-crafted legislative redistricting plan that portends a political upheaval of cataclysmic proportions for Illinois.

By its 4-3 decision, the court cleared the way for a dramatic shift in the state's political landscape. Under the new boundaries, barring an unlikely last-minute reprieve from the federal bench, legislative clout will flow to the Republican suburbs at the expense of Democratic Chicago. As a result, Democrats stand to lose the legislative hegemony they have enjoyed for almost two decades.

A close analysis of the map suggests Republicans are almost certain to win control of the Senate and to whittle down the Democrats' overwhelming House edge, or even emerge from the November election with a clear majority in the lower chamber. Moreover, the redistricting plan seems sure to transform the makeup of party caucuses as well, resulting in a stronger voice for blacks and Hispanics among Democrats and enhanced suburban influence among Republicans.

The new map creates eight Senate and 17 House districts that have black populations of 65 percent or more, and two Senate and four House districts in which Hispanics make up at least 70 percent of the population. Currently, there are seven blacks and one Hispanic in the Senate, while House membership includes 14 African Americans and two Hispanics, all of them Democrats.

The legislators who will be elected from the new minority districts are almost certain to be Democrats, but most will be replacing white Democratic incumbents whose old districts were carved up to allow additional minority representation. In all, 15 white Democrats from the city or suburbs wound up in districts with black or Hispanic majorities.

Perhaps the biggest loser under the new map is the city of Chicago, which will say good-bye to almost a quarter of the legislative seats it controlled during the 1980s. Under the new map, Chicagoans are the majority in 14 Senate and 29 House districts, compared to the 19 Senate and 37 House districts city voters have controlled for the last 10 years.

Suburban Cook County and the collar counties of DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will, meanwhile, are gaining six Senate seats and nine House seats, for a total of 24 in the Senate and 46 in the House. As a result, the suburbs for the first time ever will elect more lawmakers than either Chicago or Downstate.

With the population surge in GOP suburbia, party mapmakers had little trouble in tailoring new districts designed to elect Republicans. Consider the Senate, where Democrats now hold a 31-28 majority. Using a traditional political barometer, the new map creates 18 "safe" Republican districts, areas in which GOP candidates for University of Illinois trustee averaged more than 60 percent of the vote in the last four elections. In addition, GOP trustee hopefuls averaged between 55 percent and 60 percent in nine other districts, giving Republicans a solid edge in 27 districts, only three shy of a Senate majority. By the same yardstick, Democrats have 14 "safe" districts and eight other strong ones, for a total of 22 likely wins.

Of the remaining 10 districts, GOP trustee candidates outpolled their Democratic foes in seven, while voters in all 10 marked for President George Bush over his Democratic rival, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, in 1988. Thus, if Republicans can avoid upsets in their 27 strong districts, they need to win only three of the 10 "swing" seats — nine of them downstate — for a majority.

Redistricting has given Republicans a chance to make an even more spectacular showing in the House, where Democrats

6/February 1992/Illinois Issues


now dominate by a 72-46 count. Using the same University of Illinois trustees' barometer, the new map includes 38 "safe" Republican districts and 18 others where the GOP trustees averaged between 55 and 60 percent of the vote, for a total of 56 seats where Republicans should be favored. House Democrats can count on 31 "safe" and nine strong districts, for a total of 40. The remaining 22 districts — 19 of them downstate — include 13 in which GOP trustee candidates ran ahead of their Democratic rivals, while Bush carried 17 of the "swing" districts four years ago. If Republicans can hang on to the districts in which they appear to have a clear advantage, they would need to win only four of the 22 "swing" districts to capture control of the House.

Democrats, meanwhile, face an uphill battle, with a dozen of their sitting lawmakers placed in solidly Republican districts under the GOP plan.

Should Republicans win control of both chambers of the General Assembly, the immediate beneficiary would be Gov. Jim Edgar, who would be well positioned during the last two years of his term to shape a record on which to run for reelection. A Republican legislature would support Edgar's efforts to check spending for welfare and other human services and to enact caps on local property taxes.

With its expanded clout, suburbia could realize some goals that long have been blocked by city Democrats, such as revising the school aid formula to channel more state dollars to suburban schools and limiting noise and air pollution from O'Hare International Airport.

Chicago's reduced numbers likely will make it even more difficult for the city to win additional school aid, Chicago Transit Authority funding or social service outlays. A change in party control also would shift the legislative balance between organized labor and the business community, boosting chances for measures to ease business regulation and reduce costs, while sidetracking family leave, comparable worth and other proposals backed by organized labor.

The stakes are indeed high, and with the new map, the Republicans appear to have a winning hand.

Charles N. Wheeler III is a correspondent in the Springfield Bureau of the Chicago Sun-Times.

February 1992/Illinois Issues/7


|Home| |Search| |Back to Periodicals Available| |Table of Contents||Back to Illinois Issues 1992|
Illinois Periodicals Online (IPO) is a digital imaging project at the Northern Illinois University Libraries funded by the Illinois State Library