A bumper crop of Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls

With the ending of the 1992 presidential campaign, Illinois has already begun its next campaign season. Democrats in Chicago are speculating on their best candidates to field against Gov. Jim Edgar in 1994. There is no consensus candidate among Democrats as has usually emerged in the last several gubernatorial races. There are, however, at least seven would-be challengers — all from Chicago — in what is currently a wide open field.

• Atty. Gen. Roland W. Burns has thought about moving into the governor's mansion for almost as long as former Atty. Gen. Neil F. Hartigan. First elected comptroller in 1978, Burns has been very successful as a statewide vote getter. A fourth generation downstater, who moved from Centralia to Chicago, he calls both areas "home."

On the negative side, Burns has always struggled to raise big money for his campaigns. He's also up for reelection. Some aides would rather he skip the governor's race in 1994 and seek a second term as attorney general. But at 55, with more than two decades of public service, Burns is anxious to gamble.

If Burns does run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, he would open up the attorney general spot to a long list of Democratic hopefuls, including Illinois Comptroller Dawn Clark Netsch and state Treasurer Patrick Quinn.

• Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley has often wondered how his father put up with the City Hall office for so many years. As an eroding tax base makes it increasingly difficult to balance the city's budget, the 50-year-old Daley weighs his options more frequently.

Unlike Burns, a gubernatorial primary loss in 1994 would not leave Daley out of a job. He doesn't run for mayor again until 1995. Daley did very well in the suburbs when he was elected Cook County state's attorney, and his years as a legislator in Springfield make him more acceptable outside the collar counties.

But many downstaters still perceive a clout machine running Chicago and trying to run the state. A Daley bid would be a good campaign issue for Republicans as they shift legislative power from urban centers to the suburbs and rural areas.

• Former Atty. Gen. Hartigan almost won the governorship against Edgar and cannot be dismissed in 1994. In a multiperson primary contest he would have more statewide name recognition and many more friends down-state than Cook County Board President Richard J. Phelan.

Hartigan, 54, is no longer an officeholder, however. He wouldn't have the same resources or ability to raise funds in 1994 as he did as the incumbent attorney general in the 1990 gubernatorial election.

• Chicago attorney Albert Hofeld had no trouble getting money when he ran against Sen. Alan J. Dixon this year. But the millions he spent wasn't enough to beat both Dixon and Carol Moseley Braun in the primary. Still, Hofeld, 56, has plenty more and possibly the election bug. He was very visible during the last several months, campaigning for the Democratic slate. That visibility is handy in a statewide race — if not for governor, then attorney general.

• State Comptroller Netsch, like Hartigan, could do very well in a multiperson primary contest. With only a plurality needed to get the Democratic nomination, Netsch stands much to gain as the only woman in the field. In addition, she ranks as one of the most qualified candidates, widely recognized as an expert on state government and finances. Like Burns, a gubernatorial bid by Netsch in 1994 would be an all-or-nothing risk because the next election for state comptroller is at the same time. At 66, Netsch may decide to play it safe or go for the attorney general nomination if Burns runs for governor.

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• Cook County Board President Phelan is clearly the front-runner. From his earliest months as board president, there was talk of a gubernatorial bid. His highly controversial move to reinstate abortions at Cook County Hospital could bring him the support of thousands of women voters. It is also increasing his name recognition beyond Cook County. He has personal wealth and fundraising ability, which would be boosted considerably if he is perceived as the leader of the Democratic pack.

But Phelan, 55, held no elective office before the county board, and a jump to governor's chair would be a major leap. His legislative inexperience, perceived arrogance and tendency to dictate rather than negotiate triggered many early outbursts with county commissioners, such as Maria Pappas. Those were his first days in office, however, and since then, county debate has become more civil. Many veteran Democratic pols outside of Cook, however, might still feel more comfortable with their old pal, Hartigan.

• State Treasurer Quinn has often been regarded as a political gadfly by party regulars. Yet his intensity for fairness, reform and political honesty earn him a natural constituency among voters. Having already won a statewide race, he could present the biggest problem to Edgar.

Unfortunately for Quinn, it will be tough to win a crowded primary, particularly against Phelan. Because of a lack of fundraising ability, Quinn would rely heavily on free media coverage. As media budgets get lean and public interest in elections wanes, Quinn couldn't count on much free media until a couple of weeks before the election. At 43, the youngest of the seven, Quinn could wait to run for governor. In 1994 he would still have the option of running for reelection as treasurer or making a bid for attorney general.

Potential challengers to the 46-year-old Republican governor know there's opportunity again in the 1996 U.S. Senate election. After Dixon's defeat in the primary this year, anything might happen in 1996 when the seat held by Democratic incumbent Paul Simon comes up for election.

Manuel Galvan is a Chicago writer and marketing consultant.

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