In 1964 gas was 30 cents a gallon, boxer Mohammed Ali still called himself Cassius Clay, and Chicago's newest skyscraper was the Marina City housing complex. It would be the last time for 28 years that a Democratic presidential nominee (Lyndon B. Johnson) would carry Illinois. Bill Clinton's smashing 1992 victory over Republican George Bush and independent Ross Perot ended the string of GOP Illinois presidential wins.

Clinton's statewide victory margin over Bush exceeded both Ronald Reagan's strong Illinois wins in 1980 and 1984. In the U.S. Senate race Democratic Carol Moseley Braun easily whipped Republican Rich Williamson, making her the country's first African-American female U.S. senator.

What is not mentioned often in this state is that in 1992 Illinois Republicans lost their fifth consecutive U.S. Senate race, thereby matching the Democrats' futility level in the last five Illinois gubernatorial elections.

The total Illinois vote is coming more and more from Chicago's suburbs — especially the five collar counties of DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will (see tables 1 and 2). In raw numbers each region of the state increased its turnout in 1992 over their 1988 figures, but only the collars increased their overall percentage of the statewide vote. Statewide, the turnout for the 1992 election was 14 percent higher than in 1988: 4.5 million voters went to the polls in 1988; 5.2 million voted in 1992 (see tables 1 and 2). By far the largest percentage increase took place in the collars, where nearly 26 percent more voters went to the polls. In fact, the 1992 voter turnout increase in the collars was greater than the combined 1992 increase in Chicago and suburban Cook County. The dramatic decline in Chicago's vote power in statewide elections also continued in 1992. In 1960 Chicago cast 35 percent of the total state vote. In 1992 only 22 percent of Illinois voters cast ballots in the Windy City. Only the incredible rise of Democratic vote strength in Chicago keeps the city as a major counterbalancing force to suburban vote muscle. In 1960 John F. Kennedy, backed by the full weight and power of Mayor Richard J. Daley's political machine, won 63.6 percent of the city's vote. In 1992, a far more culturally and politically diverse Chicago, led by Mayor Richard M. Daley, gave Bill Clinton 72 percent of its vote. Clinton destroyed his opposition in Chicago, with a victory margin of almost 600,000 votes. He carried 49 of 50 wards. Despite the fact that the presidential election was a

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three-way race, Clinton received nearly 60,000 more votes in Chicago than 1988 nominee Michael Dukakis, increasing the Democratic city vote total by 2 percent (70 percent to 72 percent), and most astonishingly upped the Democratic city victory margin over George Bush by 175,000 votes.

As in 1988 the African-American wards (especially those in middle-class southside wards) led the Clinton bandwagon. In 10 wards (all south side) he won by margins of over 20,000 votes. In 15 other wards he received at least 10,000-vote victory margins. Four of these latter wards are predominantly white lakefront wards (44, 46, 48, 49) while another is the still heavily Jewish 50th Ward on the far north side. Only on the far southwest side (old Reagan Democratic country) were Clinton victory margins relatively narrow. Nevertheless, in only six of Clinton's winning 49 wards were his vote totals less than the combined ward vote totals of Bush and Perot (wards 45, 38, 36, 13, 23, 19).

Clinton received over 90 percent of the vote in 15 wards (all predominantly African-American), over 80 percent in five wards and over 70 percent in six wards. His only relatively narrow ward victories occurred on the northwest side, where he defeated Bush by less than 10 percent in two wards (45 and 38). Bush received fewer than 200,000 votes in Chicago (see table 3). His citywide vote percentage was a paltry 18 percent, and he was able to win only one ward (41). Compared to 1988, Bush's Chicago totals dropped over 115,000 votes, his vote percentage fell 12 percent, while his ward victories dwindled from eight to one. In only one ward (41) was he able to win over 40 percent of the vote, while in 18 predominantly black wards he garnered less than 10 percent of the vote.

Though the Perot factor's impact on the vote may be unclear in other places in Illinois and in the nation, it seems obvious that in Chicago Perot hurt Bush. Perot was unable to win 20 percent of the vote in any ward. The Texas billionaire ran best on the northwest and southwest sides. Along the lakefront he ran in the low double digits, while in black and Hispanic wards he was mainly in the low single digits. Statewide, Chicago was by far the least hospitable region for Perot. Still, the unconventional independent won over 100,000 votes in Chicago, with most of them coming from areas where in previous elections GOP presidential candidates Reagan and Bush had made major dents in Democratic totals. Without Perot in the race Bush would not have won over all of these voters, but he would have at least had a chance to win many of them.

Though the Perot factor's impact on the vote may be unclear in other places in Illinois and in the nation, it seems obvious that in Chicago Perot hurt Bush

A final note about Chicago's vote turnout. The citywide turnout average was 74.5 percent. Three of the five wards with the top percentage of turnout were lakefront wards (44, 42, 43). The rest of the top wards by turnout were located on the northwest and southwest sides. (House Speaker Michael J. Madigan's 13th Ward led all the rest with an 88.4 percent turnout). Only two African-American wards (6 and 8) had turnout percentages above the citywide average.

Table 1
Voter turnout in Illinois by region, 1992 v 1988
	1992		1988		Difference
	Votes	% of state vote	Vote	% of state vote	Vote	% of state vote
Chicago	1,137,379	22.0%	1,055,285	23.3%	+ 82,094	-1.3  %
Suburban Cook	1,062,229	20.6	953,270	21.0	+108,959	-  .04
Collar counties	982,329	19.0	781,282	17.3	+201,047	+1.7
Downstate	1,982,420	38.4	1,737,042	38.4	+245,378
Illinois total	5,164,357	100.0	4,526,879	100.0	+637,478

The raw ward turnout numbers tell a somewhat different story about the potential political impact of demographic shifts in the city and its recent ward remap. Only three so-called ethnic wards made the top 10 in total votes cast. They were joined by three lakefront wards, three African-American wards and the racially split southwest side 18th ward. The mainly Hispanic wards filled the list of the lowest turnout wards in the city. Clinton carried the Cook County suburbs. In 1988 these 30 suburban townships had given George Bush a 169,000-vote margin. In 1992 Bush lost them by almost 51,000 votes. Clinton won just 12 townships, but five of them (Evanston, Niles, Oak Park, Proviso and Thornton) gave him victory margins of over 100,000 votes. All five townships except Niles have significant black populations and a liberal voting past. Niles, with a huge Jewish popula-

Table 2 1992 v. 1988 voter turnout in Illinois, percentage increases by region   % increase vote increase Chicago + 7.8% +  82,094 Suburban    Cook +11.4% +108,959 Collar    counties +25.7% +201,047 Downstate +14.0% +245,378 Total   14.0% +637,478

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tion, also has supported liberal candidates in the past. However, the most important link among the five townships was a shared dislike of Bush and Dan Quayle.

Clinton's other winning townships were mainly in the more integrated south suburban area, though he did also carry upscale and sometimes liberal north suburban New Trier township. Calumet and Evanston townships, with their black communities voting, gave Clinton over 70 percent of their vote. Bush did not come close to these percentages in any of his township wins.

Bush won 18 townships, but in only Barrington Township did he win a majority of the vote. Bush was unable to win any township by 10,000 votes. Northwest suburban Palatine Township gave Bush his largest margin of victory (9,141 votes). Compared to 1988, his township margin dropoffs are amazing. His most lopsided victory in 1988 was in Wheeling Township with a margin of 21,597. In 1992 Bush's margin in Wheeling was 7,265 (more than a 14,000-vote decrease). The Bush drop in Worth Township, located in southwest Cook County, was even worse, with a 15,000-vote marginal drop. In sum, suburban Cook County was a disaster for Bush.

Perot won over 20 percent of the vote in 12 suburban Cook townships. His strength was mainly in the northwest, west and southwest parts of the county. Perot did worse in townships having a significant number of Jewish, black and liberal voters. Much like the Chicago story, Perot ran best in strong Bush areas and weakest in solid Clinton areas. Perot received over 10,000 votes in Maine, Schaumburg, Wheeling and Worth townships. It is highly unlikely that many of these voters living in these largely conservative townships producing huge turnouts would have supported Clinton in a two-man race with Bush.

In the five GOP-rich collar counties, Clinton's percentages mirrored almost exactly those of Dukakis in 1988. Unfortunately for Bush, history did not repeat for him in the collars. The incumbent president had to share his votes with Perot. Bush did not receive a majority of the vote in any collar county and in fact lost a collar county (Will) to Clinton. In 1988 the collars gave Bush a 254,000-vote margin over Dukakis. Four years later Bush's collar margin was 107,000 votes — a decline of nearly 150,000 votes.

Perot received over 20 percent of the collar vote (his strongest regional showing in the state). He ran best in McHenry County where he came within fewer than 3,000 votes of beating Clinton for second place. Even more than in suburban Cook County, Perot's collar county numbers suggest that his candidacy hurt Bush.

Table3 1992 presidential vote in Illinois   Clinton Bush Perot Chicago       Votes 793,272    199,972    102,104    Margin 593,300        Percent 72% 18% 9% Wards won 49    1    0    Suburban Cook County Votes 456,261    405,328    179,895    Margin 50,933        Percent 44% 39% 17% Townships won 12    18    0    Collar counties Votes 325,241    432,648    201,007    Margin   107,407      Percent 34% 45% 21% Counties won 1    4    0    Downstate counties Votes 878,576    696,148    357,509    Margin 182,428        Percent 46% 36% 19% Counties won 72    24    0    Illinois total Votes 2,453,350    1,734,096    840,515    Margin 719,254        Percent 49% 34% 17% Counties won 74    28    0    Note: All percentages are based on the vote for the three major candidates. Percentages may not equal 100 percent due to rounding off.

The 96 downstate counties gave Clinton a comfortable 182,000-vote margin over Bush. The Democrat carried three times as many downstate counties as his Republican opponent and beat him by 10 percent overall. Key to Clinton's strong downstate showing was his robust performance in Madison and St. Clair counties in southwestern Illinois near St. Louis. These historic twin towers of Democratic downstate vote power combined to give Clinton a staggering 52,000-vote margin over Bush. Rock Island County in northwestern Illinois also produced big time for the Arkansas governor, coming in with a 14,200-vote margin. By and large Clinton ran strong in many large downstate counties, winning 11 of them by more than 5,000 votes. Special mention should be given to Franklin County in southern Illinois. Although only the 23rd largest county in registered voters among the downstate 96, Franklin gave Clinton his seventh best margin (7,240 votes). Downstate results suggest that cartographers look into the location of the northern boundary of Arkansas because in southern Illinois Clinton ran like a native son. In percent of the vote, nine of Clinton's top 10 counties were in Little Egypt, and almost all of the state's southern tier counties gave the Democrat at least 50 percent of their vote. Overall Clinton won a majority of the vote in 26 of the 96 downstate counties. Bush was unable to win a majority of any downstate county. He did best in central Illinois and in traditional GOP strongholds around the state. The president's biggest victory margin was in Kendall County where he received a 3,098-vote margin over Clinton. (The Arkansas governor beat Bush's Kendall County margin in 20 counties). Except for southern Illinois, Perot ran fairly consistently throughout Illinois. Though he was unable to win a quarter of the vote in any single county, he did receive over 20 percent of the vote in 40 counties scattered

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throughout the state. However, far southern Illinois rejected Perot's message as counties like Pulaski and Alexander gave the Texan only 11 percent of the vote .

In sum, Illinois gave Clinton an overwhelming 15 percentage point victory. Bush's candidacy was dismissed. Incredibly, only a little more than a third of the voters supported his reelection. Perot was simply not competitive anywhere in the state, but his relatively strong areas were places where Bush had to do well.

In Illinois' U.S. Senate race, Braun whipped Williamson by a three-to-one margin in her hometown of Chicago. In winning 44 city wards Braun crushed Williamson by over 558,000 votes (see table 4). Clearly, Braun's strength was greatest in the African-American wards which gave her Harold Washington-like support. Eleven black wards gave her over 20,000-vote margins (wards 8 and 21 gave her almost 30,000-vote margins), while 12 other black and lakefront wards produced over 10,000 vote margins for Braun. In percentages, Braun almost pitched a no-hitter in black Chicago. Eight wards gave her an eye-popping 99 percent of their vote, while 10 others came in with at least 90 percent support for Braun. Along the lakefront Braun's percentages ranged from 60 percent to 80 percent. Only in the ethnic northwest and southwest wards did Braun face major Williamson opposition. And even here she did remarkably well in such predominantly white areas as the northside 50th and 40th wards, as well as the gentrifying 47th ward. Obviously, her strategy to downplay race and use gender as a political rallying point proved sound in many parts of Chicago and in the rest of Illinois as well. In Chicago, Williamson was competitive only on the northwest and southwest sides. Only the 41st Ward (Bush's only city ward win) gave him a sizable victory (5,608 votes). All of his other ward wins were by narrow margins. Of the city's 50 wards, Williamson received over 40 percent of the vote in only 10 wards. Rejected in the minority community and along the lakefront, Williamson had a real campaign only in the old Reagan Democratic wards, and even here Braun battled him to a standstill. One could only imagine how much more disastrous the city returns would have been for Williamson if the media had not scrutinized and publicized Braun's problems with handling questions on her mother receiving unreported income while on Medicaid. Braun almost carried suburban Cook County. Like Clinton, Braun did extremely well in townships with substantial blocs of black voters, and also like Clinton, she ran well in areas having sizable numbers of liberal and Jewish voters. Evanston, Proviso and Thornton townships each gave the Chicago Democrat margins of over 10,000 votes. Evanston and Calumet townships (both having large black populations) gave Braun 75 percent of their vote. Though she triumphed in only nine of 30 suburban Cook townships, Braun was surprisingly competitive in many of her losing townships. In several north and northwest suburban townships Braun held down Williamson's expected victory margin. Whether this fact was due to Clinton's coattails, Republican women crossovers or general disappointment in her Republican foe's campaign, the political reality was self-evident: Braun broke even in a voting region where Williamson needed a landslide.

Table 4 1992 U.S. Senate Vote in Illinois   Braun Williamson Chicago Votes 809,621    251,403    Margin 558,216      Percent 76% 24% Wards won 44    6    Suburban Cook County Votes 484,819    503,542    Margin   18,723    Percent 49% 51% Townships won 9    21    Collar counties Votes 385,804    516,058    Margin   130,254    Percent 43% 57% Counties won 0    5    Downstate counties Votes 947,074    859,741    Margin 87,333   Percent 52% 48% Counties won 55    41    Illinois total Votes 2,627,318    2,130,744    Margin 496,574      Percent 55% 45% Percent of all* 53% 43% Counties won 56    46    * This percentage includes minor candidates. Note: Percentages are based on the vote for the two major candidates. Percentages may not equal 100 percent due to rounding off.

As expected, the collar counties were Braun's weakest region in the state. Nevertheless, she did well enough to prevent Williamson from crushing her in this bedrock GOP area. Lake and Kane counties were pleasant surprises for Braun. She held Williamson to less than 20,000-vote margins in each county, thereby preventing him from building a gigantic base in the collars. Perhaps her only real collar county disappointment was her loss in Will County by almost 11,000 votes, despite the fact that Clinton had carried the county against Bush.

DuPage County gave Williamson more than half of his collar county margin. Along with McHenry County it gave him nearly three-fifths of its vote. However, as in the suburban Cook townships, Williamson's victory margins even in these two collar counties were below expectations.

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Given his suburban background and conservative philosophy, one would have believed that Williamson would have done much better here against a liberal Chicago Democrat.

The most interesting aspects of the Braun-Williamson results were the downstate returns. Braun carried the downstate 96 while winning a majority of the counties. Like Clinton she ran big in Madison and St. Clair counties (over a 48,000-vote combined margin) and in other big counties like Rock Island and Peoria. Clearly Clinton's southern Illinois popularity spilled over into Braun's column since she, like the Arkansas governor, smothered her opponent in rural Little Egypt. In fact, throughout the 96 counties she outdid downstate Democratic hero Paul Simon's performance against Chicago suburbanite Charles Percy in the 1984 U.S. Senate race. She won 55 counties, whereas Simon had won 38 in 1984, which was a Ronald Reagan landslide year in Illinois.

Williamson's downstate strength, like that of President Bush, was in central Illinois, but his margins paled compared to Braun's. Vermilion County gave Williamson his best downstate win, a 3,911-vote margin that would not have made Braun's top 10 list. Williamson was also hurt in counties with large universities. He was unable to win traditionally Republican DeKalb and Knox counties, and performed for a Republican poorer than expected in Jackson, Champaign and McLean counties.

All in all it was quite an election for Illinois Democrats. Only the expected loss of their state Senate majority tempered their elation. Clearly, top Democratic leaders will now focus on the 1994 statewide elections. Though their gubernatorial losing streak goes back almost two decades, 1992 demonstrated that a unified Democratic party can be an awesome political force in Illinois. As one old Democratic warhorse told me privately on election night, "Today the White House, tomorrow the statehouse."

Illinois Republicans were outhustled and outorganized in 1992. Party leaders could not overcome the divisiveness of their national convention in Houston or the festering Perot factor. For most Illinois GOPers the U.S. Senate contest was a throwaway race from the beginning. Only Braun's upset of Alan J. Dixon in the primary gave some statewide Republicans a glimmer of hope of actually winning a U.S. Senate seat.

In the end Bush, not Williamson, was the great disappointment for prairie state Republicans. *

Paul M. Green is director of the Institute for Public Policy and Administration, Governors State University, University Park. The author thanks Chris Robling, commissioner, Chicago Election Board; David Orr, Cook County clerk, and Pat Freeman, Illinois State Board of Elections.

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