Trend Watch

You need three conditions for an avalanche: a large mass, a precipice and a swift motion. Indeed, we have a massive "geezer boom." The number of Americans over age 85 has tripled to 4 million since 1960 and people 100+ are the fastest growing segment of our population (AARP). We have a precipice as another baby boomer turns 50 every seven seconds. What we don't really have is swift motion. The aging of America has been occurring at a slow and steady pace for some time now. As the implications become more obvious, it just appears to be like an avalanche.

They change life at every stage they enter. In this instance, they are the baby boomers who created the "don't trust anyone over 30" slogan are now finding that 30 is a memory in most cases. The share of the population ages 35 to 54 (formerly referred to as middle aged) will hit its peak in 2000 (The Boomer Report). They won't head over the hill, but rather they will redefine being young.

"The best customers are still boomers and boomers are still the youth market."

—Cheryl Russell
editor of The Boomer Report

No, kids aren't a new phenomena of the 21" century, but how we treat diem and perceive them might just be.

Children have always been important. We needed them to work on the family farm or in the family business, but their importance has changed over time. Myriad factors—including the noneconomic contributions of children, the rise in teen pregnancies, and the time constraints of the dual career couple—have led to many children being afterthoughts or accessories to modem day life. Well, those days are over.

The new millennium generation will take center stage and become anything but an afterthought as parents, grandparents and government institutions rethink the role and value of children in our future and our lives.

Strauss and Howe in their recent book, The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny, point out that the Millennial Generation—children who have been arriving since 1982—have brought with them the ebbing of the divorce rate, the rise of more involved parenting, and a more starring role for children in our society.

The two most rapidly growing age groups in our country are babies and their grandparents, great grandparents and great-great grandparents. With the impact of the baby boomlet in full force and the aging wave moving right along we are faced with two distinct age groups. The growth of these two groups at different ends of the life spectrum each with special needs will fuel the growing debate over how we spend our resources. Adult-oriented political issues such as tax cuts and social security are being debated on the basis of how they will impact the future of todays children.

A strong possibility exists for a tug-of-war between die two factions or a redefined view of community responsibility.

There was a time when this designation referred to people who had money and people who didn't.

This term will be revived and redefined to incorporate a number of new categories including but not limited to the following:

have their health	disabled or incapacitated
have a full time job	piece together 2 or 3 part-time jobs or projects
have health insurance	pray they don't need it
have a support network of family and friends	live on their own with few others to depend upon
have a "working" relationship with technology	think VCRs and ATMs are acronyms for foreign corporations

Things used to be so clear cut. Circumstances were black or white and decisions were right or wrong. Today, there are few aspects of modem life that are so clear. Many illustrate this blurring trend.

For example, when are people working and when are they at leisure? Thanks to technology, people come complete with beepers and email and can be reached at anytime. Ski resorts have communication centers in the lodges making it tough to know when you're really on vacation. People who work at home often have trouble distinguishing between taking a break and always working.

The definition of young and old isn't simple my more. The average age of traditional college graduates continues to creep up to the mid-20s. Gen Xers who turn 30 fear they are getting old while baby boomers who reach 50 think they are just getting started.

Ethnic distinctions have blurred. Many Americans are requesting that the next census add an additional category for people who refer to themselves as "multiracial." Increasing rates of immigration and interracial marriages make this a reality.

A globalized economy and convenience lifestyles are making it increasingly difficult to distinguish the time of day. Grocery stores, drug chains, restaurants, and catalog and online shopping are now available 24 hours per day. It is almost as if we all are experiencing that "Las Vegas" effect when day and night seem to run into one another.

Americans are becoming increasingly conscious of what used to be considered the discretionary behavior of others. Whether people smoked or exercised and what they ate or drank used to be considered personal choices, but not anymore.

The 1996 U.S. Surgeon General report told Americans to "get moving." Binge drinking or any drinking on college campuses is coming under close scrutiny. You used to be able to climb tall mountains and leap wide canyons and be assured that the National Park Service would willingly (and without cost) come to your rescue. The federal government is getting tough on the tobacco industry.

Bottom line, people don't want to pay for how others play (or make their discretionary choices).

According to the Institute of Medicine, so-called behavioral health problems are experienced by 52 million Americans between the ages of 15 and 52. The enormous societal impact in terms of lost wages and higher medical costs fuels the interest in monitoring other peoples behavior.

It's becoming increasingly more difficult to understand human behavior. We spend one way and act another. We talk one thing and walk another. For example:

....in 1995, Americans spent $8.7 billion on athletic and sports clothing and $2.5 billion on exercise equipment (U.S. Statistical Abstract, 1996)

....60% of American adults have insufficient leisure-time physical activities (1995 Midcourse Review of Healthy People 2000)

....participation in sports and fitness activities among youth ages 12 to 17 dropped as follows: soccer, -12.9%; soft-ball, -23%; skiing, -27.6% (American Sports Data)

Car ads don't even mention transportation and rarely show the vehicle until the end. They extol what their product can make happen in your life.

The Mall of America has transformed shopping from an activity to an experience. You don't just wander through museums anymore, you experience the art. As adults move through stages in the life cycle, they shift their interest (and spending) from things such as houses, clothes and cars to experiences (travel, learning, volunteering). All types of service providers from the arts to zoos are altering activities, facilities and programs to create experiences for their participants.

That's right. You read it correctly. We will have to change the ways in which we perceive, react, create and respond to change.

This "change in change" will infiltrate into our personal and professional lives as we search for strategies to deal with the rapid pace of change, the call to address totally new situations, and the challenge to make sense of it all. Watch for strategic plans to give way to scenario selections.

In this instance, we aren't referring to the traditional 4Ps of marketing but rather the new millennial Ps for parks and recreation: power, promise, potential and possibilities.

Our field has the power and promise to make a significant impact on the lives of individuals, families, neighborhoods, communities and society as a whole. We have the potential to create, provide and facilitate possibilities of all kinds for a preferred future.

ELLEN O'SULLIVAN, Ph.D, CLP
is the president of Leisure Lifestyle Consulting of Glastonbury, Conn., specializing in support for the service industry in reaching and retaining customers through leisure experiences and lifestyle connections, ellenosull@ao.com.

You'll Know It's the New Millennium When...

You will know that you are approaching or entering the Year 2000 when you see, hear, feel or deal with the following.