A VIEW FROM THE SUBURBS

U.S. Rep. Dennis Hastert, the man some in the Washington media have dubbed "the accidental speaker," begins his second year at the helm of the U.S. House hoping to avoid a wreck. But the election-year outlook in Hastert's home state of Illinois demonstrates just how rocky the road ahead will be.

Hastert must help retain the 10th District seat long occupied by his suburban colleague, Rep. John E. Porter of Wilmette, as well as the 15th District seat occupied by political veteran Rep. Tom Ewing, once one of his closest comrades in Congress.

After a tumultuous post-impeachment year in which Hastert struggled to demonstrate control over a conservative conference with only a five-vote majority, Ewing's and Porter's retirement decisions within days of one another stung the speaker.

"For Denny Hastert to be unable to control the hemorrhaging in his own backyard speaks volumes about his own leadership," says John Del Cecato, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

A less partisan observer agrees. "At the very least, it is an embarrassment that two senior members of the Republican Party in his own state chose to retire at the absolute worst possible time," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor of The Rothenberg Political Report based in Washington, D.C.

It will be an even bigger embarrassment if Hastert loses control of either seat to Illinois Democrats. A loss in either district would mean a shift from the even party split in the Illinois delegation. More significantly, a Democratic win here could contribute to the loss of GOP control in the U.S. House.

Two GOP retirements from Illinois' delegation could affect that party's chances of keeping the U.S. House

Nineteen GOP House seats are open this year, and 10 of those are serious problems for the Republicans, Rothenberg says. Another six to 10 seats with GOP incumbents are considered vulnerable to upset.

The GOP primary in the central Illinois 15th District will be hotly contested, and President Bill Clinton has carried the district. Still, few expect Hastert and the Republicans to lose their grip on that seat.

But the 10th District, which spans Northwest Cook County and the eastern half of Lake County, is another matter entirely.

Adding insult to Hastert's injury, Lt. Gov. Corinne Wood and three other women state legislators in the district declined the opportunity to run to succeed Porter.

Republicans are now staring down the danger of a crowded primary contest, while Democratic state Rep. Lauren Beth Gash of Highland Park raises cash and awaits the GOP winner.

"Republicans know they have an open seat problem that's quickly become an open seat crisis," says Del Cecato.

At one point, the chair of the GOP congressional campaign committee even approached Porter to ask him to reconsider, but he declined.

"I have it rated as a pure toss-up," says handicapper Rothenberg, "and I think around Washington it's regarded as a Republican migraine."

Not only have Republicans failed to coalesce around a singularly strong contender for the seat, but the district represented by Porter since 1980 has increasingly trended Democratic. Porter was re-elected every two years without significant challenge, but four Democratic state legislators, including Gash, now represent portions of the larger congressional district.

In the March 1998 primary, 60 percent of voters took Republican ballots, while only 40 percent took Democratic ballots, indicating the district remains Republican at its core. But GOP veterans in the area know voters in the 10th look past party labels and vote for the person they judge as best.

Republican U.S. Sen Peter Fitzgerald carried the district in 1998 with 52 percent of the vote, but Democratic Secretary of State Jesse White won it, as did Democratic Comptroller Dan Hynes. Both Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin and Clinton carried the district in 1996.

"That district is high up there in terms of Democratic opportunities and Republican risks," says Rothenberg. "It's a very chaotic situation."

Hastert will have a difficult time maneuvering through this election year test track.

"It's an added distraction to a year that will see a number of hotly contested races around the country," says Hastert's press secretary John McGovern of the two open Illinois seats. "But we believe strongly that both districts will continue to elect Republicans, and we will do everything in our power to assist those efforts."

Madeleine Doubek is assistant metro editor/projects & politics for the Daily Herald, a suburban metro newspaper.

Illinois Issues January 2000 / 41